IEP’s Positive Peace model can measure a country’s resilience to shocks, including intense weather events.
A comparison of low peace and high peace countries shows that natural disasters occur at roughly the same frequency or as often. Despite a similar number of extreme weather events, the resulting number of fatalities are dramatically different: countries with weak Positive Peace have a fatality ratio of 13:1 compared to high Positive Peace environments, whereas the frequency of natural disasters is much closer at 6:5.
Research from the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) shows that high Positive Peace countries are more likely to maintain stability, adapt to climate variation, and recover from shocks than those with low levels of Positive Peace.
Countries with high levels of Positive Peace have stronger institutions, well-functioning governments, sound business environments, equitable distribution of resources, high levels of human capital and good relations with neighbours, which all influence their ability to respond to stress induced by climate events.
Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. Institutions at a local, regional and global level can mitigate climate-related conflict by creating resiliency programs and managing climate-related disputes.
Based on IEP’s years of statistical analysis of thousands of datasets, the Positive Peace framework consisting of eight pillars can be used as the basis for empirically measuring a country’s resilience to shocks, including intense weather events, as well as its ability to adapt in the long-term. It can also be used to measure fragility and help predict the likelihood of conflict, violence and instability.