Ecological Threat Report

This is the fifth edition of the Ecological Threat Report (ETR), which analyses ecological threats in 207 countries and territories. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the report covers 3,518 sub-national areas which account for 99.99 per cent of the world’s population. The ETR assesses threats relating to food insecurity, water risk, demographic pressure and hazardous natural events.

The research takes a multi-faceted approach by analysing ecological threats at the national, subnational, and city level, while also assessing the threats against societal resilience and levels of peace. To assist the international community in prioritising its focus, IEP has identified the countries, administrative districts and cities which have the most severe threats and lowest coping capabilities. These are the countries most likely to suffer from increased levels of ecological threat related conflict. The Ecological Threat Report also looks at the future, with projections out to 2050.

The 2024 ETR aims to provide an impartial, data-driven foundation for the debate about ecological threats facing countries and subnational areas and to inform the design of resilience-building policies and contingency plans.

Key Findings from the Ecological Threat Report 2024

The 2024 ETR report concludes that without concerted international action, accelerating ecological degradation will amplify social friction and conflicts worldwide. These challenges will be further exacerbated by climate change.

• Ecological risks are intensifying due to climate change, population growth, and conflict, with a strong correlation between ecological degradation, poverty and the incidence of conflict.
• 50 countries, currently home to 1.3 billion people, face high or very high levels of ecological threat. The population in these nations is projected to increase to almost 2 billion by 2050.
• The ETR identifies 27 ecological hotspots countries: where extreme ecological risks intersect with low societal resilience, leaving them vulnerable to instability, conflict and humanitarian crisis.
• Of the 27 hotspot countries, 19 are in sub-Saharan Africa and four are in the Middle East and North Africa. Many are currently experiencing conflict or civil unrest.
• Conflict prevention in agro-pastoralist communities is strongly linked to the strength of local governance structures, with community-based approaches proving more successful than external interventions.
• Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest irrigation rates in the world, with only 1.8 per cent of cultivated land being irrigated. There is substantial opportunity to relieve ecological pressure through improved water collection and management.
• An annual investment of $15 billion in water capture and agricultural enhancement initiatives to 2050 could lift food production in sub-Saharan Africa by 50%

Download the Ecological Threat Report 2024 press release here.

Request a media interview

Media Inquiries