The war in Ukraine is showcasing innovative tactics, technological advancements, and asymmetric strategies. As with previous conflicts, terrorist groups worldwide are closely observing these developments, drawing valuable lessons to enhance their own capabilities. From drone warfare to cyber-attacks, the Russia-Ukraine war is reshaping the landscape of modern terrorism, equipping non-state actors with new tools and techniques to challenge conventional security measures.
Drones have played a pivotal role in the Ukraine conflict, revolutionising surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeted strikes. Commercially available drones have been modified for military purposes, delivering explosive payloads and conducting intelligence-gathering missions. Terrorist groups are likely to adopt similar tactics, employing off-the-shelf drones to execute precise and low-cost attacks.
Cyber warfare has become a critical component of modern conflict. Russia and Ukraine have engaged in extensive cyber operations, disrupting infrastructure, spreading disinformation, and launching cyber-attacks on government and military networks. Extremist organisations are increasingly using cyber tools to target financial systems, disrupt essential services, and manipulate public opinion through digital propaganda.
The conflict has demonstrated the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in military operations. AI-powered reconnaissance, target identification, and automated decision-making systems are being used to enhance battlefield effectiveness. Terrorist groups may seek to exploit AI for automated targeting, social media manipulation, and deepfake propaganda to sow confusion and distrust.
Both Russia and Ukraine have leveraged psychological operations (PSYOPs) to influence public opinion and destabilise enemy forces. From viral propaganda campaigns to fabricated battlefield narratives, the strategic use of disinformation has proved to be a powerful weapon. Extremist groups can adopt similar methods to amplify their ideological reach, radicalise individuals, and undermine societal cohesion.
The war has highlighted the growing reliance on encrypted messaging platforms for secure communication. Apps such as Telegram and Signal have been used extensively by both military personnel and civilians to coordinate operations and disseminate information. Terrorist organisations continue to utilise encrypted channels to plan attacks, evade surveillance, and recruit new members.
Despite Ukraine’s numerical and technological disadvantages, its ability to leverage guerrilla tactics and unconventional warfare has disrupted Russia’s military advances. This underscores the effectiveness of asymmetric strategies, which terrorist organisations will continue to refine. By exploiting urban warfare, small-unit tactics, and surprise attacks, they can challenge even the most advanced security forces.
The war has seen an increased reliance on private military contractors, with groups like the Wagner Group playing a significant role. While PMCs traditionally operate under state direction, the proliferation of mercenary forces creates potential opportunities for non-state actors, including terrorist groups, to employ similar models for their operations.
Social media platforms have been instrumental in mobilising support, fundraising, and spreading propaganda. Both sides in the conflict have used social media to document war crimes, appeal for international assistance, and coordinate civilian resistance. Extremist groups are likely to refine their social media strategies, exploiting algorithms to maximise engagement and reach vulnerable audiences.
The conflict has demonstrated how readily available materials can be repurposed for military applications. From 3D-printed weapons to makeshift explosives, the rapid adaptation of technology for warfare is a key lesson for terrorist organisations. The ability to construct lethal devices using commercially available components will continue to be a significant concern for counterterrorism efforts.
The integration of AI and automation in the battlefield is reshaping modern combat. Autonomous drones, AI-driven battlefield analysis, and automated targeting systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated. Extremist groups may seek to exploit these advancements, developing self-sustaining attack mechanisms that require minimal human intervention.
The lessons drawn from the Russia-Ukraine war underscore the evolving nature of terrorism and the challenges faced by security agencies. To mitigate these risks, counterterrorism strategies must adapt to the changing landscape of warfare. Key measures include:
The Russia-Ukraine war is reshaping the future of conflict, providing terrorist organisations with a blueprint for modern warfare. As technology continues to advance, extremist groups will increasingly integrate cyber warfare, AI, and asymmetric tactics into their operations.
This excerpt is taken from ‘Ten Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War’, by Dr Christina Schori Liang, Head of Counterterrorism and PVE, Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and Faculty Member, PSIA, Sciences Po, originally published in the Global Terrorism Index 2025 report.
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