Small Island Nations- Climate Threat and Relocation 

The Ecological Threat Report 2024 (ETR) provides an overview of a range of threats related to humanity’s relationship with the natural environment. These include water stress, food insecurity, rapid population growth, and hazardous natural events, and their potential impacts on peace and security around the world. The ETR examined the extreme vulnerability of small island nations to natural events such as rising sea levels and the increased volatility and frequency of cyclones and other storms. The isolation, size, and bio-homogeneity of small island nations make them especially vulnerable to climate shocks. 

Many of those most directly affected are in the South Pacific. Most island nations in Polynesia are made up of low-lying reef islands and atolls, making them especially susceptible to sea level rise. Tuvalu and Kiribati are two of the most endangered countries in this region, with an average elevation of just two metres and Tuvalu’s highest point reaching only five metres above sea level. Additionally, most of the population in Tuvalu live less than two metres above sea level. Projections vary on the amount of sea level rise to be seen in the next century, but regardless of overall rises, massive storm surges pose a substantial threat. In 2015, large waves and storm surges from Tropical Cyclone Pam heavily impacted the country, with some waves being four to five metres higher than the islands themselves.

To ensure the security of its people, the prime minister of Tuvalu negotiated a novel bilateral agreement with Australia called the Falepili Union. The focus of the agreement is Australia’s recognition of the deep desire of Tuvaluans to continue to live in their home, and a commitment by Australia to aid in protecting Tuvalu from rising climate threats. Acting on this agreement, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade donated US$1.2 million to Tuvalu’s Coastal Adaptation Project. The project was implemented by the United Nations Development Programme and aims to create new land above the reaches of high tides and storm surges. It would expand the capital of Funafuti into the harbour by 3.6 square kilometres at an elevation level that would put it 2.4 metres above the Highest Astronomical Tide and should be safe from sea water for over 80 years.

This is a significant effort to protect Tuvalu from rising sea levels, but the true uniqueness of this agreement comes from the efforts to provide a pathway for easy migration from Tuvalu to Australia in anticipation of rising sea levels and other climatic events. The agreement allows for up to 280 migrants from Tuvalu annually to be granted permanent residency in Australia. With Tuvalu’s population counting just over 11,000, it would only take 40 years at this rate for the entire country to relocate to Australia.

The agreement also includes a clause concerning security, ensuring that Tuvalu and Australia must mutually agree on any partnerships, military, and other of the nation’s security matters. While this has drawn some criticism and sovereignty concerns, there has been wide support for the agreement, particularly from other small island nations in the Pacific.

Kiribati has also adopted a unique approach to combating the threat of climate change to its islands. With over 116,000 inhabitants across its three archipelagos, Kiribati has a much larger population than Tuvalu and thus requires a different approach to securing a space for its citizens. In 2012 Kiribati purchased 22 square kilometres of land in nearby Fiji, which is less susceptible than Kiribati to rising sea levels due to its more elevated terrain. The land purchased on Fiji’s second-largest island of Vanua Levu is intended to first house skilled workers, freeing up land in Kiribati for agriculture and relocation, but is eventually planned to be the home of the nation’s entire population. In 2014, the Prime Minister of Fiji stated that Fiji would welcome the citizens of Kiribati to relocate should their country become submerged.

Island nations like Tuvalu and Kiribati are at the forefront of climate threatened existence. While countries around the world are feeling a variety of impacts of climate change, countries with variance in altitudes, biomes, and greater resources will likely see increased internal migration and partial loss of hospitable land. But they will not be in danger of complete uninhabitability like small low-lying nations, including Vanuatu and Nauru in Polynesia, as well as low-lying island states in other parts of the world like the Maldives in the Indian Ocean.

Tuvalu’s and Kiribati’s plans for relocation introduce new challenges for international relations and security, particularly concerning state sovereignty and the continuity of nation when their countries’ land becomes uninhabitable. Tuvalu’s and Kiribati’s survival strategies highlight the severity of the threats to their homelands. They may signal a new era of international agreements focused on mitigating the societal impacts of climate change and, in extreme cases, seeking to preserve entire nations and their cultures through mass or even total migration.