What will happen to millions of Syrian refugees? 

The conflict in Syria since 2011 has led to almost 14 million Syrians being forcibly displaced both within and beyond its borders.

Of the 6 million registered Syrian refugees, most are in neighbouring countries, led by Türkiye, Lebanon and Jordan. If unregistered Syrians are included, Lebanon’s total increases to 1.5 million, making it the highest concentration of Syrian refugees relative to is population. 

There are also around 1.2 million Syrian refugees throughout European nations, led by Germany, Austria and Sweden. News of Assad’s fall prompted several European countries, including Germany, the UK, Spain and Italy, to pause the processing of asylum applications.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced plans to open additional border crossings, predicting an increase in voluntary returns as stability improves in Syria.

“As Syria gains more stability, God willing, voluntary, safe, and honourable returns will increase,” Erdoğan said. 

At the beginning of Syria’s civil war in 2011, Türkiye accepted large numbers of Syrian refugees. However, as has happened in many nations, a rising climate of economic stress has hardened public opposition towards refugees, becoming an issue for many incumbent governments which struggled at the polls in 2024’s record year of elections. 

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan reaffirmed Türkiye’s commitment to rebuilding Syria – and helping refugees return.  

“We will continue our efforts to ensure the safe and voluntary return of Syrians and to rebuild the country,” he said.  

However, the UN said European nations should not rush to repatriate refugees to the country following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. While many Syrians were eager to return home, UN special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, said “there are livelihood challenges still. The humanitarian situation is disastrous. The economy has collapsed.”

The UN estimates that 90% of the Syrian population is living below the poverty line. 

Most of the Syrian refugees in neighbouring countries Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt have said they hope to return to Syria at some stage, according to a survey by the UN Refugee Agency in June 2024.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said many European countries have wanted to send Syrians back to their home country even before the fall of the Assad government. 

“The collapse of the regime has given them the opportunity to purse these aims openly,” wrote Will Todman, CSIS’s Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program.

“However, refugee return to Syria will be fraught with challenges. Rushing the return of millions of Syrians would put even more pressure on Syria at an extremely fragile moment and would undermine the prospect of a successful transition. It could backfire in ways that destabilize the the wider Levant, frustrating host communities’ expectations, exacerbating social tensions, and leading to renewed flows of displacement.”

Todman also warns that Syria’s political future is uncertain, with many Syrians fearful of the Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

“A power struggle seems likely, with Turkish-backed groups fighting Kurdish-led groups in the north, exiled political leaders returning, and HTS trying to strengthen its control,” he wrote. “Many Syrians fear what HTS rule would mean. While HTS has attempted to assure minorities that they won’t be targeted, many Syrians are skeptical about their promises, given HTS’s Al-Qaeda roots and record of authoritarian rule in northwest Syria.”

Who are Syrian rebels?

They’re being led by the insurgent group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, more commonly referred to as HTS. The HTS is considered a terrorist organisation by the UN and has its origins in terror group Al Qaeda. However, in recent years HTS says it has cut ties with Al Qaeda. Also in the mix is a group of Syrian militias known as the Syrian National Army, backed by Türkiye. 

Another potential player in the Syrian power vacuum is terror group Islamic State (IS). US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that IS would try to use this period to re-establish capabilities in Syria, but said the United States is determined not to let that happen.

Blinken said Syrians have to choose their future, adding that statements by rebel leaders toward building inclusive governance are welcome but that the real measure will be in the action they take, not just what they say. 

And while Russia supported the defeated Assad regime, it has itself come under attack from Islamic State. The March 22 attack on a Moscow theatre, with more than 130 killed, marks the largest attack from ISIS in Russia to date and occurred just days after President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term in office. Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility, and previous IS terror attacks have been closely linked to Chechen separatists and the Chechen civil wars of the early 1990s and 2000s. 

Islamic State remains the world’s deadliest terror group, despite the October 7th attack by Hamas in Israel. Islamic State and Hamas lead a group of four dominant terrorist groups that account for an increasing number of deaths, according to the annual Global Terrorism Index 2024 (GTI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). 

The four terrorist groups responsible for the most deaths in 2023 were Islamic State (IS), Hamas, Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) and Al-Shabaab. These four groups were responsible for a combined 4,443 terrorism deaths, or over 75 per cent of deaths that were attributed to a specific group.