What happens next when a terrorist group overthrows a government? 

When an organisation designated as a terrorist group by the United Nations overthrows a nation’s government and assumes control, it presents a challenge to the international community.

In Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) sought to transition from a non-state actor to a governing body, and a corresponding reassessment of the group’s status. 

HTS was formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra or the al-Nusra Front, which was al-Qaeda’s official wing in Syria until breaking ties in 2016. It was designated as a terrorist organisation due to these links. After HTS this month led a coalition that successfully ousted the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, it has sought international recognition and requested the UN and the US to remove its terrorist designation. In its current status as a listed terror group, any support for Syria that goes through HTS could equate to support for a terror group and could itself be sanctionable.

The Global Terrorism Index (GTI), published annually by the Institute for Economics & Peace, states that a terrorist group is typically defined as an organisation that employs violence or the threat of violence to achieve political, religious, or ideological objectives, often targeting civilians to instil fear and coerce governments or societies into meeting their demands. The GTI analyses the impact of terrorism worldwide, considering factors such as the number of incidents, fatalities, injuries, and property damage.

In 2017, HTS initially became the dominant force in Idlib, north-west Syria’s largest rebel base and home to about four million people, many of whom were displaced from other Syrian provinces. To address concerns about a militant group governing the area, HTS established a civilian arm which they called the “Syrian Salvation Government” (SG) as its political and administrative arm. The SG functioned like a state, with a prime minister, ministries and local departments overseeing sectors such as education, health and reconstruction, while maintaining a religious council guided by Sharia, or Islamic law. Human rights groups have accused HTS of committing abuses in Idlib, with Amnesty International last year saying HTS “continued to subject journalists, activists and anyone who criticized their rule to arbitrary detention without access to a lawyer or family members.” 

The Syrian war started as a largely unarmed uprising against al-Assad in 2011, but expanded to include multiple foreign powers, and resulted in hundreds of thousands of people killed, and millions of refugees. Russian and Iranian intervention appeared to sway the tide towards al-Assad in 2015, but the HTS-led offensive that began in November 2024 took advantage of Russia’s focus on its war on Ukraine, as well as the weakening of Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah as a result of their conflict with Israel. 

In the wake of its recent ousting of the Assad regime, HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has made public statements emphasising the group’s commitment to protecting minority rights and establishing a government based on institutions and a council selected by all Syrians. He also said there is no longer a need for foreign forces to remain in Syria, including those from the US, Turkey, Russia and Iran as well as Iranian proxies in the country. In an interview with US news network CNN, al-Jolani, using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, outlined plans for a government grounded in institutions and a “council chosen by the people.” Additionally, HTS has begun integrating former regime bureaucrats into its administration to ensure continuity of governance and stability. 

A spokesman for the interim Syrian government said that now that the Assad regime had been defeated, sanctions by the international community need to be lifted, saying these have “deeply affected the people”. And in In response to Syrians’ anger over the war-damaged economy, the spokesman said al-Jolani would increase salaries of public servants by up to 400 per cent. 

Despite these efforts, some in the international community remains cautious. The United Kingdom’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, Jonathan Hall, has expressed concerns that Syria could become a sanctuary for terrorists, similar to a new form of Islamic State, following Assad’s fall. He emphasised the need for substantial evidence of behavioural change before considering the de-proscription of HTS.  

The UN has said that evidence of an inclusive political transition in Syria will be the key to it receiving the economic support it needs. UN Resolution 2254, which was adopted unanimously by the Security Council in 2015, calls on Member States “to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by” HTS’s predecessor, the Al-Nusra Front. For this to change, and HTS to be de-listed as a terrorist organisation by the UN, it would again require a unanimous vote by the 15-member UN Security Council.