Ecological Threat Report 2025

New research from the Institute for Economics & Peace reveals that changing rainfall patterns are significantly amplifying conflict risks worldwide. The 2025 Ecological Threat Report (ETR), finds conflict death rates are substantially higher in areas where rainfall is concentrating into fewer months, compared to regions where rain is spreading more evenly throughout the year. This sixth edition of the ETR is the first to include a multi-year time series (2019-2024), enabling a clearer view of year-on-year volatility alongside persistent trends.

• • On average in areas where wet and dry seasons are becoming more extreme, there are four times as many conflict deaths as areas where it has decreased.
• • In 2024, natural hazards triggered 45 million short-term internal displacements across 163 countries, the highest figure since at least 2008.
• • Western Brazil, including parts of the Amazon, has recorded some of the world’s sharpest increases in ecological threat levels. Temperatures have risen at twice the global rate, triggering drought and wildfires.
• • Sub-Saharan Africa faces the world’s most severe ecological pressures, with Niger registering the worst ETR score.
• • Central and Western Europe recorded substantial overall improvements, in part representing a return to normalcy following Europe’s unusually dry climatic conditions in 2019.
• • Despite fears of looming water wars, there have been no interstate conflicts fought exclusively over water in the modern era. In the second half of the 20^th century, at least 157 freshwater treaties have been signed, offering models for interstate cooperation.
• • This cooperative approach to water somewhat mirrors nuclear deterrence since the Second World War. In both cases, the very threat of catastrophic destruction has created pragmatic cooperation. The destruction of water supply can lead to societal collapse.

Download the Ecological Threat Report 2025 press release.

The 2024 ETR report concludes that without concerted international action, accelerating ecological degradation will amplify social friction and conflicts worldwide. These challenges will be further exacerbated by climate change.

• • Ecological risks are intensifying due to climate change, population growth, and conflict, with a strong correlation between ecological degradation, poverty and the incidence of conflict.
• • 50 countries, currently home to 1.3 billion people, face high or very high levels of ecological threat. The population in these nations is projected to increase to almost 2 billion by 2050.
• • The ETR identifies 27 ecological hotspots countries: where extreme ecological risks intersect with low societal resilience, leaving them vulnerable to instability, conflict and humanitarian crisis.
• • Of the 27 hotspot countries, 19 are in sub-Saharan Africa and four are in the Middle East and North Africa. Many are currently experiencing conflict or civil unrest.
• • Conflict prevention in agro-pastoralist communities is strongly linked to the strength of local governance structures, with community-based approaches proving more successful than external interventions.
• • Sub-Saharan Africa has the lowest irrigation rates in the world, with only 1.8 per cent of cultivated land being irrigated. There is substantial opportunity to relieve ecological pressure through improved water collection and management.
• • An annual investment of $15 billion in water capture and agricultural enhancement initiatives to 2050 could lift food production in sub-Saharan Africa by 50%

Download the Ecological Threat Report 2024 press release here.

The main finding from the 2023 ETR is that without concerted action, current levels of ecological degradation will worsen, intensifying existing conflicts, and becoming a catalyst for new conflicts, thereby resulting in increases in forced migration.

• • Ecological threats, such as rapid population growth, water risk and food insecurity will be compounded by climate change, causing mass displacement of people and conflict.
• • A 25% rise in food insecurity increases the risk of conflict by 36%
• • Similarly, a 25% increase in the number of people without access to clean drinking increases the likelihood of conflict by 18%
• • 1 billion people are living in 42 countries that currently face severe food insecurity
• • 1 in 4 people globally do not have regular access to safe drinking water
• • By 2050, 2.8 billion people will reside in countries facing severe ecological threats, compared to 1.8 billion today
• • More than 60% of the world’s megacities are growing rapidly and are in countries with high levels of violence or conflict. These cities lack the financial resources to cater for their population growth.

Read the full 2023 Ecological Threat Report.