Geopolitical Ripples of Syria’s Latest Military Realignment 

In the wake of Bashar al-Assad’s ousting in December 2024, Syria has embarked on a complex and uncertain transitional period under the leadership of interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The recent decision to integrate approximately 3,500 foreign jihadist ex-rebels, primarily Uyghurs from China and neighbouring countries, into the newly established 84th division of the Syrian army, may raise significant geopolitical concerns.  

Concurrently, the Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for two attacks, including the first against Syrian government forces since Assad’s fall. 

China has long justified its stringent policies in Xinjiang, including mass detentions and surveillance of Uyghurs, as necessary measures to combat separatism and terrorism. The presence of Uyghur fighters in Syria, many affiliated with the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), has been a focal point in China’s narrative. The integration of these fighters into Syria’s official military structure could be interpreted as hostile by Beijing and may prompt China to intensify diplomatic engagements with Syria, seeking assurances that these individuals will not pose a threat to Chinese interests. Additionally, China may increase intelligence operations to monitor the activities of Uyghur militants abroad.

The recent IS attacks in Syria underscore the persistent threat posed by extremist groups in the region. For the US and Russia, both of which have vested interests in combating terrorism, this resurgence presents a complex challenge. The US, having reduced its military footprint in Syria, may find itself compelled to reassess its strategy to prevent IS from regaining strength. This could involve increased support for local partners, intelligence sharing, and targeted operations against IS leadership. 

Russia, a key ally of the former Assad regime, faces a delicate situation. While its influence in Syria has waned post-Assad, Moscow remains interested in maintaining a foothold in the region. The resurgence of IS could provide Russia with a rationale to re-engage militarily, positioning itself as a player in regional stability efforts. 

Israel has consistently expressed concerns over the presence of hostile actors near its borders. The incorporation of former jihadist rebels into Syria’s military apparatus may exacerbate these concerns, particularly if these elements are perceived as aligned with anti-Israel ideologies. Israel may also seek to strengthen alliances with regional partners to counterbalance the evolving dynamics in Syria. 

Syria’s post-Assad era is marked by a series of intricate challenges that extend beyond its borders. The integration of foreign fighters into the national army and the re-emergence of IS highlight the fragile nature of the country’s transition.