According to IEP’s recent Geopolitical Influence & Peace report, we are witnessing a transformative shift in global power dynamics, with the number of countries wielding significant international influence nearly tripling since the Cold War’s end. Nigeria’s BRICS partnership must be viewed and understood within this broader context of evolving global influence competition.
The timing is significant. IEP’s data shows that current geopolitical risk levels exceed those of the Cold War era, driven by heightened military spending and stalled efforts at nuclear disarmament. Within this volatile environment, Nigeria’s alignment with BRICS represents part of a larger pattern of emerging powers seeking to reshape the international order through strategic economic partnerships rather than military means.
Nigeria’s entry into the BRICS partnership framework, alongside countries like Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, and the UAE, reflects what IEP identifies as a key characteristic of contemporary international relations; the rise of middle powers reshaping the landscape through strategic investments and influence-building initiatives. This expanding alliance structure challenges the traditional Western-dominated international system in several ways:
First, it represents a shift away from the post-Cold War unipolar moment. As the IEP report notes, global power is being redistributed, with emerging middle powers creating new pathways for international cooperation and influence. Nigeria, as Africa’s most populous nation, brings significant demographic and economic weight to this realignment.
Second, the recent renewal of Nigeria’s currency swap arrangement with China ($2 billion) exemplifies what the IEP identifies as the “weaponisation” of economic interdependence. Once seen as a stabilising force, economic ties are increasingly deployed strategically to reshape global power dynamics.
The implications extend beyond mere economic cooperation. IEP’s research shows that global trade as a percentage of GDP has plateaued around 60% over the past decade, suggesting we’ve entered a new phase of international economic relations. BRICS’ potential challenge to dollar dominance in oil and gas trading could mark a significant shift in this plateau, particularly given Nigeria’s status as a major oil producer.
Nigeria’s joining BRICS as a partner state also occurs against a backdrop of what the IEP describes as diminishing effectiveness of traditional multilateral institutions. The report notes a significant decrease in UN Security Council resolutions and increased use of vetoes, reflecting deepening divides among major powers. In this context, BRICS represents an alternative framework for international cooperation and influence.
The challenges ahead are substantial. The IEP report highlights how developing nations increasingly face economic disruptions and governance challenges due to shifts in major power geopolitics. Yet the potential benefits are equally significant. IEP’s analysis suggests that emerging regional powers are increasingly able to shape both regional and global dynamics. Nigeria’s BRICS partnership could provide crucial leverage in addressing its development objectives, while contributing to the broader restructuring of global economic governance.
This development reinforces the IEP’s conclusion that unlike the bipolar structure of the Cold War, today’s global landscape is shaped by technological dominance, economic interdependence, and influence competition across emerging regions. Nigeria’s alignment with BRICS represents not just a national strategic choice, but a significant step in the ongoing evolution of the international order toward a more multipolar configuration.
Download the Geopolitical Influence & Peace report here.