The European Union has been told it cannot rely on the United States to defend it and must increase military spending and security preparedness to help Ukraine and deter Russia from targeting any more of its neighbours.
“Ask not of America what it can do for our security. Ask yourselves what we can do for our own security,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country holds the EU presidency, said, paraphrasing a quote from US President John F. Kennedy’s inaugural address in 1961.
In an address to EU lawmakers, Tusk urged the 27-nation bloc to “take control” of its own security and to identify its weaknesses. “If Europe is to survive, it must be armed,” he said. As geopolitical tensions escalate, European leaders are signalling a shift in their approach to security, emphasizing self-reliance and increased defense spending. Tusk’s remarks underscore a growing consensus within the EU that the continent can no longer depend solely on the US for its defense. Instead, Europe must enhance its military preparedness both to support Ukraine and to deter future aggression from Russia.
Top EU foreign affairs official Kaja Kallas also called for EU member states to “wake up” when it comes to defense spending. “Russia is not the problem for some, but for all of us. Europeans need to wake up,” Kallas told the annual conference of the European Defense Agency in Brussels.
The Geopolitical Influence & Peace Report from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) highlights key shifts in international relations that contextualise Europe’s security concerns. Geopolitical risk today surpasses Cold War levels, driven by heightened military spending, stalled nuclear disarmament, and a decline in multilateral institutions’ effectiveness. The report notes that global military spending reached a record $2.43 trillion in 2023, marking the largest increase since 2009. The war in Ukraine has been a major catalyst, prompting European nations to rethink their long-standing security frameworks.
At the same time, the role of the United Nations (UN) and other multilateral institutions has weakened, as vetoes in the UN Security Council have surged, reflecting widening divisions among major powers. These challenges compound concerns over Europe’s dependency on the US within NATO, especially given uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy priorities.
Anxiety is mounting that US President Donald Trump might seek to quickly end the war in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on terms that are unfavourable to Ukraine, or once again refuse to defend European allies who do not boost their military budgets.
Tusk’s address to EU lawmakers called for an urgent reassessment of Europe’s defense strategy. His central message – Europe must be prepared to take control of its own security – resonates with broader trends identified in the IEP report.
Poland, under Tusk’s leadership, has committed nearly 5% of its GDP to defense, exceeding the contributions of any other NATO member, including the US. This reflects a broader trend of European nations surpassing the 2% GDP defense spending target set by NATO. The IEP report underscores that military expenditures are at their highest levels since the Cold War’s end, with European nations leading this surge. Germany, for instance, has pledged significant increases in its defense budget, and discussions across the EU indicate a shift toward long-term investment in military capabilities.
Beyond national spending, there is a renewed push for EU-led defense initiatives. The establishment of the European Defence Fund and the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) aims to streamline military coordination among member states. The EU’s Strategic Compass, an action plan for bolstering security and defense by 2030, reflects growing consensus on reducing reliance on external actors.
Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine remains a focal point of European security discussions. The IEP report highlights that conflicts involving major powers are becoming more frequent and prolonged. European leaders increasingly view support for Ukraine as a strategic necessity, not only to uphold territorial integrity but to deter further Russian expansionism.
Tusk’s call for increased defense spending until Russia “backs down” aligns with broader concerns about Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions. The report notes that Russia has leveraged hybrid warfare tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, to destabilise European nations. Countering these threats requires more than just military investment, but also necessitates robust cyber defense, intelligence-sharing, and economic resilience.
A central theme in recent European security discussions has been the uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy. President Trump’s historical criticisms of NATO and reluctance to commit unequivocally to European defense have raised questions about the alliance’s long-term stability. The possibility of his second administration pursuing a more isolationist approach adds to these concerns.
Tusk’s statements reflect growing apprehension about Europe’s over-reliance on US military power. While NATO remains a cornerstone of European security, there is a recognition that European nations must be prepared to act independently if necessary.
While increasing military budgets is a critical step, long-term security requires a multifaceted approach. The IEP report emphasises the broader geopolitical risks posed by economic instability, energy dependency, and climate change.
Europe’s security is closely tied to economic stability and energy independence. The EU has made strides in reducing dependency on Russian energy, but further investment in renewable energy and supply chain diversification will be essential. Economic stagnation, as noted in the IEP report, also presents a risk; ensuring sustainable growth will be key to maintaining resilience.
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While the effectiveness of the UN has declined, regional cooperation can play a stabilising role. Strengthening the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and reinforcing diplomatic ties with emerging global powers could help mitigate external threats and conflicts.
The IEP report highlights the rise of disinformation campaigns, cyber warfare, and economic coercion as modern tools of geopolitical competition. Investing in cybersecurity, countering misinformation, and enhancing intelligence-sharing will be vital components of Europe’s defense strategy.
Europe’s push for increased military spending and strategic autonomy is driven by rising geopolitical risks, growing uncertainty in transatlantic relations, and the need to contain Russian aggression. However, military investment alone does not guarantee security. A comprehensive approach, encompassing economic resilience, energy independence, cybersecurity, and diplomatic engagement, is essential for ensuring long-term stability.