Climate Change and Social Strain Threaten the Peace in the Sundarbans

The Sundarbans, which stretches across the southern reaches of Bangladesh and India, is widely celebrated as the planet’s largest mangrove forest and a refuge for endangered species. Yet beneath its ecological riches lies increasing instability that threatens residents and biodiversity.

Accelerating sea level rise, at almost double the global average, coupled with salinity and recurrent cyclones, have transformed once-fertile farms into wastelands, upending local economies and exposing millions to entrenched vulnerability. For communities dependent on rice farming and fishing, the effects are severe: crops fail, fish and crab stocks decline, and mounting debts drive families into distress. With livelihoods collapsing, many men migrate to distant cities for work, leaving women to run households, care for children and elders, and sustain community life. This shift increases women’s burden and exposes families, especially children, to poverty and instability. At the same time, it has also given rise to new forms of agency and collective action among the women left behind. 

Those who migrate seldom find secure futures. Instead, they join the burgeoning ranks of climate refugees on the edges of Kolkata, Dhaka and other cities, subject to precarious employment, substandard living conditions and the ever-present threat of further displacement. The resulting social fragmentation erodes longstanding patterns of cooperation, trust and mutual aid.  

India and Bangladesh illustrate broader regional stresses highlighted in the Ecological Threat Report 2024, with South Asia being among the most disaster-prone regions. India scores 2.92 (moderate risk) and Bangladesh 3.90 (more severe risk), both grapple with mounting population pressures, water scarcity and disaster intensity. These factors erode social capital and weaken trust, reducing community resilience, which is a critical component in the Eight Pillars of Positive Peace frameworks that underpin IEP’s research.

The Eight Pillars of Peace: An Integrated Challenge

The Sundarbans’ climate crisis cuts across every measure of resilience outlined in the research of the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). Weak governance, limited budgets and cross-border hurdles undermine disaster response, while the collapse of fishing, farming and forestry has stripped away key sources of income. As land and water grow scarce, conflicts within and between communities escalate, and tolerance gives way to disputes over property, ponds and even wildlife encroachments. Effective adaptation depends on stronger cooperation between India and Bangladesh, which is hampered by legal and political barriers. At the local level, poor access to information leaves residents unprepared for cyclones, or unable to claim relief, while declining health, education and skills narrow future prospects. Corruption and uneven distribution of aid further deepen vulnerability, making recovery an uphill struggle for those most in need.

Pathways Towards Recovery and Cohesion

Experts say the Sundarbans’ challenges cannot be solved with isolated or short-term fixes. What is needed is a coordinated approach that combines environmental restoration, fair resource use, and inclusive governance, while ensuring that vulnerable groups, especially women and indigenous communities, are central to decision-making. Practical steps include restoring mangroves, promoting climate-resilient farming, improving community-led early warning systems, and strengthening cooperation between neighbouring states. 

At a curtain raiser for COP 30 held in Kolkata, municipal leader Debashish Kumar emphasised the need for the urgent global action to prevent loss of livelihoods – and lives. Calls for robust climate financing and international partnerships on vulnerable areas like the Sundarbans are expected to be a focus of attention at COP 30 in Brazil beginning Nov 10, 2025.

The recovery and security of at-risk geographies will ultimately depend on how well governments, local communities, NGOs, and international agencies put these measures into effective practice. The Sundarbans today sits on a fragile frontline of the climate crisis, reflecting challenges faced across the planet. Experts stress that protecting both its ecology and its communities will require stronger foundations of stability and cooperation to secure the region’s future.