China v United States battle for influence expanding

While the new US administration under President Trump is announcing cuts to US aid for many developing countries, China’s is building space alliances, with a secretive overseas program forging nearly two-dozen pacts with African nations in its bid to surpass the US in space. Chinese investments in satellites and infrastructure are winning friends and also giving China more surveillance abilities, according to a Reuters report.

China has publicly announced much of this space assistance to African countries, including its donations of satellites, space monitoring telescopes and ground stations. What it hasn’t discussed openly is that Beijing has access to data and images collected from this space technology, and that Chinese personnel maintain a long-term presence in facilities it builds in Africa.

Beijing has 23 bilateral space partnerships in Africa, including funding for satellites and ground stations to collect satellite imagery and data, according to the United States Institute of Peace, a think tank. In the past year, Egypt, South Africa and Senegal agreed to collaborate with China on a future moon base, a project that rivals the United States’ own lunar plans.

Following President Trump’s threat to take back the Panama Canal, China criticised what  it called US “coercion” after Panama declined to renew a key infrastructure agreement with Beijing. Panama’s decision to walk away from its agreement with China was seen as a concession to the US over the canal, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with the Panamanian president. 

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said that China “firmly opposes the US smearing and undermining the Belt and Road cooperation through means of pressure and coercion.” 

Another growing battleground between the US and China is intellectual property (IP). Both the Chinese tech company DeepSeek and US’s OpenAI have been accused of IP infringement. The internet and newer technologies like AI and 3D printing allow creators to produce, distribute, and monetise their work without traditional gatekeepers, while both AI and 3D printing blur copyright. 

The Geopolitical Influence & Peace report from the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) provides further insights into Chinese government loans and investment, particularly in Africa and other developing regions. China has emerged as the most influential external actor in regions like West Africa. Its Belt and Road Initiative has significantly reshaped economic dependencies in developing countries.  

China’s Growing Influence in Development Aid

• China has emerged as the most influential external actor in regions like West Africa, largely due to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

• Chinese investments in infrastructure, mining, agriculture, and telecommunications have reshaped economic dependencies in these regions. 
• China’s development aid is distinct from traditional Western aid models, focusing more on bilateral relationships and infrastructure-driven economic growth. 

China’s Role in Debt and Economic Dependencies

• The report notes that in 2024, 3.3 billion people lived in countries where debt interest payments exceeded spending on health and education. Many of these are countries heavily indebted to China. 
• China has been a leading lender to developing nations, particularly through its BRI loans, contributing to high debt burdens in regions such as Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. 
• West Africa is highlighted as a region where China has overtaken both France and the United States in influence. 

Strategic Influence in South Asia

• The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a major project that has reinforced China’s influence in South Asia. 
• China has expanded its investments in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, further challenging India’s traditional regional influence. 

China’s Competition with Western Nations

• In Latin America, China is competing with the US by increasing its investments, particularly in Bolivia, Paraguay, and Argentina, focusing on resource extraction and energy sectors. 
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, China has become the dominant economic partner in 27 countries, compared to just nine for the US. 

The Geopolitical Influence & Peace report explores the shifting dynamics of global power, drawing comparisons to the Cold War while underscoring the unique challenges of today’s interconnected and multipolar world. Geopolitical risks today exceed levels seen during the Cold War, driven by heightened military spending, stalled efforts at nuclear disarmament, and a diminished role for multilateral institutions like the United Nations.  

Unlike the bipolar structure that prevailed in most of the 20th-century Cold War, the current global landscape is shaped by technological dominance, economic interdependence, and influence competition across emerging regions such as Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia. Economic interdependence, once seen as a stabilising force, is increasingly weaponised, as seen in trade wars, sanctions, and the deliberate decoupling of supply chains in critical industries. In exploring the current dynamics of global power, the report addresses the challenges of a multipolar world and the implications for the developing world. Developing countries can face economic disruptions, diminished development funding, and governance challenges due to shifts in geopolitics of the major powers.  

During the Cold War, developing countries became arenas for proxy wars, economic exploitation, and political interference, exacerbating instability, poverty, and underdevelopment. Today, as global power struggles intensify, nations in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia risk becoming similarly entangled, facing increased economic pressures, disrupted trade partnerships, and reduced access to critical investments. Debt servicing costs now outweigh investments in essential services for many developing countries, undermining their capacity for sustainable growth. Moreover, the plateauing of global trade integration limits economic opportunities, further constraining development pathways for emerging economies.  

Competition for influence among powerful nations may undermine local governance and development priorities, diverting attention from urgent challenges such as climate change, food insecurity, and peacebuilding. A nuanced understanding of these dynamics is crucial to ensure that developing countries are supported in long-term stability and development.