Middle powers reshape global order in post-superpower era 

The report, The Great Fragmentation: The Rise of Middle Powers in a Fractured International Order, also finds that while the United States, China, Japan and major European economies have seen their relative global influence plateau or weaken, India is the only great power whose overall influence continues to expand.

The findings position India not as a rising middle power, but as a future-defining great power, whose strategic choices will play a decisive role in shaping global stability, trade and diplomacy in the decades ahead.

Geopolitical fragmentation now exceeds Cold War levels, superpower influence has plateaued since 2015, and the number of middle power nations has nearly doubled from nine in 1991 to 16 today. 

Other than India, all great powers are experiencing a decline in their share of global economic output, the report notes, underscoring India’s unique trajectory in a rapidly changing global order.

Key Findings

• Neither the US nor China has substantially increased their sphere of influence since 2015, with both facing domestic constraints and international pushback
• Germany’s share of global GDP has nearly halved from 8.5% to 4.3% since 1995; Japan’s has collapsed from 17.9% to 4.0%. Only India among great powers shows strong projected growth
• The UAE, Indonesia, and Türkiye have emerged as the most dynamic middle powers, with the UAE now the largest source of foreign investment in sub-Saharan Africa
• Rising middle powers maintain ties with both superpowers, pursuing ‘variable geometry’ coalitions, shown by the approach PM Carney outlined for Canada
• Other than India, all great powers’ overall influence is waning
• A group of emerging powers are likely to upgrade to middle powers, including Argentina, Denmark, Australia, Nigeria, Singapore, Egypt and Thailand

Rising middle powers have rapidly expanded their diplomatic connectivity, narrowing the gap with great powers. As middle and emerging economies command a growing share of global GDP, superpowers are finding it increasingly difficult to shape their behaviour.

The report’s findings align with the need for middle powers to pursue strategic diversification. Canada’s announcement of 12 new trade and security agreements across four continents in six months reflects the hedging strategies IEP identifies among rising powers globally.

Implications for Peace & Conflict

The report warns that fragmentation carries significant risks. Internationalised intrastate conflicts have nearly tripled since 2010, with middle powers increasingly involved as suppliers, mediators, or proxy supporters.  

However, the report notes that the strategic positioning of middle powers also creates opportunities – their ability to maintain dialogue with multiple parties makes them essential for conflict resolution, as demonstrated by Türkiye‘s role in brokering the Black Sea grain deal.