Instead of power being concentrated among a few dominant nations, as it was during the Cold War (1947-1991), a period of intense rivalry between the US and the Soviet Union, global influence is now more widely spread, with many mid-level countries gaining strength and assertiveness. This growing number of influential players has reshaped international dynamics.
Since the end of the Cold War, the number of countries with significant geopolitical influence beyond their own borders has nearly tripled, from just 13 to 34. Nations like India, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, and the UAE have become powerful actors in their regions, often competing with each other for influence.
At the same time, cooperation between countries is declining. Trade restrictions have surged, with more than 3,000 new restrictive measures introduced in 2023 alone, three times the number from just four years earlier. Diplomatic, economic and military alliances are fraying, and major powers like the US and China are reaching the limits of their global influence.
This decentralisation of power, fuelled by rising debt in fragile states, a decline in international peacekeeping, and renewed arms races, is making the world more unstable and harder to govern collectively.
At the launch of the Global Peace Index 2025, Steve Killelea, Founder and Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics & Peace, said Global Fragmentation is dramatically increasing.
“This is driven by rising middle-level powers, major power competition, and unsustainable levels of debt burdens in the world’s most fragile countries,” Killelea said. “This is leading to a fundamental realignment and a possible tipping point to a new international order, the nature of which still can’t be fathomed.”
The Great Fragmentation signals the end of a more centralised global system and the beginning of a more complex, contested, and potentially unstable geopolitical era.
Further reading: ‘The Great Fragmentation’ Driving Conflict: World Peace Plummets
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Identifying and measuring the factors that drive peace
Identifying and measuring the factors that drive peace
