Election plans amid Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis and ongoing conflict

Myanmar faces sustained challenges following the 2021 military takeover, with complex conflict dynamics involving the military, ethnic armed groups and opposition actors. Approximately 21 per cent of Myanmar is controlled by the military, including the major cities, and 42 per cent by rebel and ethnic forces, while most of the remaining area contested, according to analysis from the BBC. 

Over 3.5 million people have been internally displaced, across Sagaing, Mandalay and border regions residing in informal camps and remote locations with limited access to food, healthcare, and clean water. The protracted conflict and displacement severely constrain humanitarian assistance and access, worsening humanitarian conditions. Myanmar ranks 153rd out of 163 countries on the Global Peace Index 2025, the least peaceful in the Asia-Pacific region.  

Civilian casualties exceed 5,350 since 2021, including 2,414 deaths between April 2023 and June 2024. GPI 2025 identifies Myanmar as the world’s largest producer of synthetic drugs, strengthening organised crime networks and contributing to violence and instability. This entrenched criminal economy increases insecurity and complicates prospects for conflict resolution. 

The GPI 2025 reports that in terms of conflict escalation factors, the Myanmar civil war ranked alongside the South Sudan civil war, Syrian civil war and Malian civil war in 2024 in terms of high levels of ethnic exclusion. And higher levels of ethnic exclusion, where one ethnic group dominates for example, is linked to more severe conflicts where the outcome could be considered more existential for the excluded or in-power groups.  

GPI 2025 highlights a clear decline in political stability as armed conflicts eroded junta control nationwide. This deterioration was compounded by public unrest over the junta’s decision to reinstate compulsory military service. 

The World Food Programme (WFP) has repeatedly warned of rising food insecurity, with supply shortages and movement restrictions affecting vulnerable communities across the northwest and southeast. The collapse of infrastructure, including healthcare facilities, schools and local administrative systems, further compounds the crisis. Ongoing internet outages and restrictions on communications have disrupted information flows, limiting citizens’ ability to access reliable updates and coordinate support.  

These constraints directly undermine two core pillars of Positive Peace: free flow of information and sound business environment, both of which are essential for long-term socioeconomic resilience. 

Structural issues undermine peace prospects, and the election may not resolve underlying tensions. Elections planned for December 2025 occur amid these continuities of conflict and displacement. The military attributes its 2021 takeover to alleged electoral fraud in the November 2020 polls, which had been won by Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, although election observers found no evidence sufficient to alter results. The State Security and Peace Commission, chaired by Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, leads an interim civilian administration.  

However, ongoing conflict has led to plans for by-elections due to nationwide polling challenges. Opposition groups face bans or boycott the electoral process, limiting broad political participation. Analysts report the military’s objectives include legitimising its authority internationally while maintaining control domestically. Additionally, large parts of the country remain outside the control of the central military authorities. Ethnic armed groups and local defence forces maintain influence across broad territories, raising questions about security, voter registration and access to polling sites. In this environment, the ability to conduct a nationwide election that meets internationally recognised standards of transparency, fairness and inclusivity remains uncertain. 

Applying IEP’s Positive Peace framework, Myanmar exhibits weakened governance, restricted civic participation, limited justice system effectiveness and high economic inequality. These deficits erode institutional trust and exacerbate conflict risks. Without systemic restoration of governance capacity, inclusive dialogue, and rule of law, peacebuilding efforts risk superficiality. The concentration of authoritarian control further constrains prospects for stability. 

Sustainable peace depends partly on ASEAN’s ability to transcend procedural consensus to adopt effective conflict resolution. The international community must coordinate to ensure humanitarian access and avoid legitimising non-inclusive political processes. Regional diplomacy and international support are critical in addressing Myanmar’s challenges. 

Myanmar’s present conditions illustrate that electoral processes alone cannot resolve entrenched conflict and humanitarian crises. Sustainable peace requires addressing structural inequalities, restoring institutional trust and expanding inclusive political participation.