Peace in Mexico improved by 5.1 per cent in 2025, the largest single-year gain ever, while the number of recorded homicides fell by approximately 7,000 compared to 2024.
The Mexico Peace Index 2026 (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), reports that peace in Mexico improved by 5.1 per cent in 2025, the largest single-year gain since the Index began. The number of recorded homicides fell by 22.7 per cent, representing approximately 7,000 fewer deaths compared to 2024, also the largest single-year decline on record.
Yet the MPI cautions against reading these numbers as a structural transformation in Mexico’s security landscape.
Violence in the country is going through a phase of transformation. While high-lethality indicators are falling, other forms of violence, including domestic abuse, disappearances, extortion, and firearms offences, continue to grow or entrench themselves across different regions.
As Mexico prepares to co-host the FIFA World Cup, welcoming hundreds of thousands of international visitors, the question is whether institutional foundations are strong enough to make these gains last.
Violence is changing, not disappearing
One of the most significant findings of the MPI 2026 is the shift in the nature of violence. Domestic violence has become the most frequent violent crime in Mexico, surpassing robbery and assault. At the same time, firearms offences continue to rise, reflecting persistently high levels of weapons availability and the spread of violent dynamics into everyday community settings.
On organised crime, the MPI identifies a significant transformation in criminal structures. The fragmentation of large cartels into smaller, more regional cells has diversified illicit activities, increasing extortion, control of local economies, and localised territorial violence. This fragmentation has made containing violence more complex by multiplying local actors capable of territorial dispute and control. In Sinaloa, internal conflicts between criminal factions caused significant spikes in violence, exposing the fragility of recent gains.
Of Mexico’s 32 states, 22 recorded improvements in peacefulness while 10 experienced deterioration. Yucatán remained the most peaceful state for the ninth consecutive year; Colima retained its position as the least peaceful for the fourth consecutive year, owing to its high homicide rate and the concentration of organised crime activity.
Disappearances: a deepening humanitarian crisis
The number of missing persons continues to rise. Since 2010, more than 113,000 people have disappeared in Mexico, a figure the MPI links both to the persistence of criminal structures and to institutional limitations in search, investigation, and access to justice.
The report describes disappearances as one of the most sensitive challenges facing the Mexican state, not only because of their humanitarian dimension, but because of the erosion they cause in public trust and institutional legitimacy. Despite the fall in homicides, fear of violence among citizens is actually on the rise, suggesting that perceptions of insecurity remain widespread and are not yet tracking the improvement in objective indicators.
The justice system: the binding constraint
Mexico’s justice system continues to constrain further progress. The country has approximately two judges per 100,000 people, which is one-seventh the global average, contributing to high levels of impunity, low rates of crime reporting, and significant backlogs in criminal proceedings.
The incarcerated population reached its highest recorded level in 2025, surpassing 256,000 people. Prison overcrowding and structural underfunding limit the capacity for rehabilitation and social reintegration, conditions the report warns may contribute to cycles of recidivism and violence.
Mexico currently allocates limited proportions of public spending to public safety and justice institutions compared to other Latin American and OECD countries. The MPI argues that increasing investment in prosecution, criminal investigation, policing, and social reintegration could yield significant long-term reductions in the cost of violence.
“The reduction in homicides represents an important advance and should be recognised as such. However, the sustainability of these results will depend on the institutional capacity to address more fragmented, complex, and socially widespread forms of violence.” said Michael Collins, IEP Director for the Americas.
The economic cost of violence
The economic impact of violence fell by 11.4 per cent in 2025, the largest annual reduction on record, yet it still amounted to four trillion pesos (approximately US$220 billion), equivalent to 11 per cent of Mexico’s GDP. Costs associated with fear, security spending, and incarceration remain substantial even as homicide-related costs fall.
The regional disparity in these costs is stark. At the national level, the per capita economic impact of violence was 30,000 pesos (roughly US$1,500) in 2025, nearly double the average monthly wage. In Yucatán, that figure was just 11,000 pesos; in Colima, it reached 70,000 pesos. In Guerrero and Morelos, the cost of violence represented more than a third of each state’s entire GDP.
The administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum has implemented new security strategies, in part responding to mounting pressure from the United States, that appear to have contributed to recent improvements. However, these have come at a cost: the number of incarcerated individuals has risen sharply, and the long-term sustainability of enforcement-led gains remains uncertain.
In February 2026, Mexican security forces conducted an operation that led to the death of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of one of Mexico’s two most powerful drug cartels. His death caused immediate retaliatory violence, though calm appeared to return within days. The long-term implications for criminal structures and territorial control remain unclear.
“Building peace does not depend solely on reducing lethal violence, but on strengthening institutions, improving access to justice, and consolidating social conditions that allow violence in all its expressions to be reduced,” said Collins.
The MPI 2026 concludes that Mexico shows meaningful signs of improvement on key peace indicators. But the persistence of disappearances, domestic violence, extortion, and criminal fragmentation signals that violence is in a phase of transformation, not resolution.
The durability of these gains will depend on whether the country can strengthen the pillars of Positive Peace — effective institutions, low corruption, access to justice, and social cohesion — that allow security improvements to become permanent.
The full MPI 2026 report, interactive maps, and further resources are available at visionofhumanity.org or indicedepazmexico.org/
