Technology and modern warfare: How drones and AI are transforming conflict

As revealed in the Global Peace Index 2025 (GPI), technological innovation, particularly in drone warfare and artificial intelligence, is making conflict more accessible and more asymmetric – but with that, also more difficult to resolve.  

In just two years, the number of companies manufacturing drones has exploded from six in 2022 to over 200 by 2024. In Ukraine alone, more than 2.5 million drones are expected to be produced in 2025. The battlefield is being transformed into a testbed for this new mode of warfare, with drone attacks by Ukrainian forces increasing by more than 127 times since the early days of the conflict with Russia. 

The next generation of drones is expected to be AI-enhanced, capable of autonomous navigation, swarm coordination, and precision targeting. These systems represent not just technological upgrades but a profound change in how wars are fought. Drone swarms can now be deployed with limited human oversight, allowing for sustained, low-cost, and high-impact operations over prolonged periods. 

One of the most destabilising aspects of drone and improvised weapons technology is its low cost and high impact. Technologies costing only hundreds of dollars can now disable or destroy military assets worth millions. This levelling of the battlefield fundamentally redresses the power balance between state and non-state actors, giving insurgents and militias tools that allow them to resist far more powerful conventional forces. 

This dynamic plays out not only in Ukraine but across the globe. The proliferation of drone and IED technology means that smaller insurgent groups can now drag conflicts into long, attritional campaigns. This emerging trend helps explain the rise in conflicts that have no clear endpoint — the so-called “forever wars” that defy resolution and sap resources for years, if not decades. 

The GPI 2025 highlights that the world is now experiencing the highest number of state-based conflicts since World War II – 59 in total – and that 78 countries were involved in conflicts beyond their borders in 2024. This high level of internationalisation is being compounded by the ease with which modern conflict technologies can be deployed and exported. 

Importantly, the GPI 2025 finds that conflicts are not only more frequent but harder to end. The share of conflicts that result in a decisive victory has dropped from 49 per cent in the 1970s to just 9 per cent in the 2010s. Similarly, those resolved through peace agreements have declined from 23 per cent to only 4 per cent. 

As drone technology continues to spread, it is likely to be adopted by rebel groups, militias, and non-state actors across fragile states — especially in conflict-prone regions like the Sahel, the Middle East, and parts of South Asia. Once embedded in local theatres, these technologies make conflicts more complex, less centralised, and increasingly difficult for traditional peacekeeping or military interventions to resolve. 

The GPI 2025 reports that the global economic impact of violence reached $19.97 trillion in 2024, equivalent to 11.6 per cent of global GDP. Military spending alone hit a record high of $2.7 trillion. As military budgets grow in response to rising threats, the investment in peacebuilding has sharply declined, with peacekeeping and conflict prevention comprising just 0.52 per cent of total military spending. 

The cost-effectiveness of asymmetric technologies such as drones and IEDs creates an imbalance: low-cost tactics can provoke high-cost military responses, stretching national budgets and diverting funds from essential public services. As noted in the GPI, this trade-off between defence and social cohesion can exacerbate political polarisation and long-term instability, particularly in Western democracies. 

Ukraine exemplifies the rise of tech-driven conflict. The country has become the epicentre of innovation in drone deployment, both in production and in battlefield application. It has integrated mass drone usage into conventional military operations, while also adapting inexpensive drones for surveillance, targeting, and direct attacks. 

The militarisation domain in the GPI shows sharp deteriorations for both Ukraine and Russia, with Ukraine ranking 160th on this measure. Despite these setbacks, Ukraine’s innovation in the face of adversity signals a new era of decentralised, adaptive warfare. But the long-term implications of this technology proliferation, particularly when such capabilities spread to less stable or less accountable groups, remain deeply concerning. 

The threat posed by drone warfare is not limited to traditional battlefields. In fragile states with porous borders and weak governance, the adoption of drone technology by non-state actors could intensify civil conflict, enable transnational crime, and complicate humanitarian operations. In the Sahel, for instance, ongoing violence and arms shipments already threaten to destabilise vast regions of sub-Saharan Africa. 

The GPI 2025’s conflict risk matrix identifies several regions, including South Sudan, Ethiopia, Syria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as at high risk of escalation. As drone and AI technologies diffuse, these countries may become future hotspots of next-generation warfare.

The accelerating pace of technological change in warfare has transformed conflict into a more decentralised, durable and asymmetric phenomenon. Drone warfare and AI-driven combat tools are not only changing the battlefield but redefining the strategic landscape. 

Peacebuilding efforts must now adapt to this new reality. This includes anticipating how technologies will be used in emerging conflicts, regulating their proliferation, and expanding investment in Positive Peace, the attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain peace in the long term. Although levels of Positive Peace improved for over a decade up to 2019, they have since been in decline, including in both North America and Europe. Without adequate investment, further deterioration in peacefulness appears likely.

As technology reshapes the tools of war, so too must the international community reshape its tools for peace.

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