Overpopulation

In the 20th century, world population grew from about 1.5 billion to 6 billion at the end of the century. Over the last 50 years the rate of growth in population has not been matched before in human history.

It is estimated that the majority of population growth will occur in urban areas of developing countries. (Millennium Project State of the Future Report 2006)


Overpopulation is best understood, not in terms of global population density, but as the numbers of people in an area relative to its resources and the capacity of the environment to sustain human activities, that is, its carrying capacity. Under this definition overpopulation might be corrected with no change in the number of people.

An area is overpopulated when the population cannot be maintained without rapidly depleting non-renewable resources (or without converting renewable resources into non-renewable ones) and without degrading the capacity of the environment to support the population.

By this standard, the planet overall and many individual nations are already overpopulated.

By 2050 the fertility rate of the world will have fallen below replacement levels for 75% of the world. Current estimates see the world population peaking at 9 billion people. Millennium Project State of the Future Report 2006

The graph below highlights the worst possible scenario for humanity where the population of the planet exceeds the carrying capacity of the planet to sustain life.


Population trajectories indicate world population reached:

• * 2.5 billion in 1950
• * 6.1 billion in 2000
• * 6.6 billion in 2007 today
• * Projections are the world population will reach:
• * 7.2 billion by 2015
• * 9 billion by 2050

Source: Millennium Project

At some point the increasing population of the planet will be utilizing so many resources that the degradation of these resources will decrease the planets ability to sustain life. It can be seen by the studies on bio-diversity that this point is approaching. If the solutions are not peaceful then the wars that will be fought over the remaining resources will only deplete those remaining resources even further.

Leaders of the future must work in harmony. To do this they need models, tools and systems that enable them to react cohesively and with a vision beyond the short term interests of individual nation states. Without peace between nations it will be impossible to create the necessary environment that will nurture the qualities necessary to achieve sustainability.