As part of the 2014 Global Peace Index Report, the Institute for Economics and Peace developed new statistical modelling tool to identify the 10 countries most threatened by increased levels of unrest and violence in the next two years.
The country risk model has a 90% historical accuracy. The 10 countries most at risk are: Zambia, Haiti, Argentina, Chad, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Nepal, Burundi, Georgia, Liberia and Qatar.
The new methodology analyses a data set stretching back to 1996, and compares countries with the performance of states with similar institutional characteristics.
Speaking about the country risk model, Founder and Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace Steve Killelea said: “What is transformational in this analysis is our ability to compare a country’s current level of peace with the potential for it to increase or decrease in violence in the future.”
“A country’s potential for peace is shaped by many positive factors including sound institutions, well functioning government, low levels of corruption and a pro-business environment which we call the Pillars of Peace. These models are revolutionary for assessing country risk; positive peace factors tend to align over longer periods of time with actual levels of violence thereby allowing real predictive accuracy.”
Given the deteriorating global situation we cannot be complacent about the institutional bedrocks for peace: our research shows that peace is unlikely to flourish without deep foundations. This is a wakeup call to governments, development agencies, investors and the wider international community that building peace is the prerequisite for economic and social development.
For more on countries at risk and to understand the full methodology, download the 2015 Global Peace Index Report and see the section on Country Risk Analysis from page 55 onwards.Related Articles
The 2014 Global Peace Index analyses the state of peace around the world. It identifies the most and least peaceful countries, trends in violence and conflict, and calculates the economic impact of violence. This year the report includes a section on countries at risk of becoming less peaceful in the new two years.
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