Migration

At an international gathering in Copenhagen Lord Stern stated that if the world was to warm by 5C over the next century we would: “see hundreds of millions people, probably billions of people who would have to move and we know that would cause conflict, so we would see a very extended period of conflict around the world, decades or centuries as hundreds of millions of people move”. Migration is one of the defining global issues of the early twenty-first century, as more people are on the move than at any other point in human history. There are over 200 million international migrants in the world today.

The Issue

Roughly one of every thirty-five persons in the world is a migrant. Between 1965 and 1990, the number of international migrants increased by 45 million-an annual growth rate of about 2.1%. The current annual growth rate is about 2.9%. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) there are roughly 20 to 30 million unauthorized migrants worldwide, comprising around 15% of the world’s immigrants.  In 2007, there were 26 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) in at least 52 countries as a result of conflict. That same year the global number of refugees reached an estimated 11.4 million persons.  There is growing recognition that migration is an essential and inevitable component of the economic and social life of every country, and that orderly and properly managed migration can be beneficial for both individuals and societies. But if badly managed, migration can lead to social stress, inequalities, violence and even conflict. Developed countries are happy to accept highly skilled migrants while they are deeply conflicted about absorbing large numbers of low-skilled workers. Large scale migration among poor countries is already pervasive, sometimes with little monitoring or control; this can at times erupt into ethnic violence and even war. For the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the conflict between needing migration and having to sacrifice human resources to get it may be the single greatest challenge of using international migration as an instrument for economic development. The many global trends behind today’s mobile world include: demographic trends; economic disparities between developing and developed countries; trade liberalization necessitating a more mobile labour force; communication networks linking all parts of the world; and, transnational migration.  In addition, as stated by Lord Stern, the importance of the reciprocal impact of climate change and migration is expected to grow incrementally over the coming decades. Altered rainfall patterns, rising sea levels and increasingly frequent natural disasters are all likely to exceed the absorption capacity of large areas of the world, and to critically affect problems of food and water security in marginal areas. This could potentially create billions of migrants.  Some critics have characterized the period from the mid-1970s to the present time as a quarter century of migration mismanagement. Irregular migration has become one of the major issues of our time. Migrant smuggling now matches drug trafficking as a major source of income for organized crime. Trafficking in human beings has become a significant worldwide concern. Migration has moved up the scale of important issues facing the countries of the developed world so that now it is at the top of the policy agenda of the G8 countries.

The Solutions

Migration can provide a remittance income stream that improves the livelihood of households that do not have access to other opportunities. But it is key to ensure those remittances help create dynamic economies that over time can offer economic alternatives to migrating. A few things can be done to ensure migration is well managed:

Be balanced: It is essential to have policies that promote the incentives for workers to stay in their home countries, whilst not closing the door to international labour mobility.

Cooperate: Governments need to actively collaborate with each other and partner with international migration organizations in order to make migration a tool for development.

Adapt: Acknowledge, assess and plan for the role of climate change and environmental degradation in future population movements. Greater attention must be paid to helping developing countries to adapt to the impacts of climate change, for instance by altering irrigation techniques, building better storm shelters and developing drought-resistant crops.

Be strategic: Look at ways to enhance migration’s contribution to economic development in migrant-sending areas, by encouraging remittance-receiving countries to offer cheaper ways for their nationals to remit from abroad; leveraging remittances in ways that improve welfare and stimulate investments in migration-source areas; and, creating an environment in which remittance multipliers can flourish.

Think long-term:

Some temporary programmes, notably those that involve seasonal jobs during harvest periods or peak tourist seasons, work well. But cycling repeated waves of temporary migrants in and out of a country to occupy the same jobs is inefficient. Employers have to retrain workers every time rather than retain experienced staff. Enforcing such a scheme on employers entails substantial economic and political cost.

Focus on development:

It is imperative that the focus remains on economic development in the poorer regions. While migration, though remittances, can help the economic development process, it can also lead to a “brain drain”.  Ultimately, only a small fraction of the unskilled workers will be allowed to migrate legally and their remittances will not be sufficient to finance the public investments that are needed