The State of Peace in Chad

Chad was one of the top 5 risers in peace for 2013. A big challenge to peace that Chad faces is domestic and international conflict. Chad was engaged in a civil war from 2005 to 2010, and there is the risk that conflict will re-emerge. Chad is also in a highly volatile region, which heightens the risk to peace. Five of the six countries that border Chad are below the Sub-Saharan Africa GPI average. Tensions in Libya, Nigeria, Central African Republic and Sudan all have the potential to encroach into Chad. In particular, there has been continual conflict on the Sudan-Chad border between the Chadian army and Chadian opposition forces raising fears that the civil war which ended in 2010 may reignite.

In spite of the challenges facing Chad, it has seen improvements over the last year. Deaths from internal conflicts fell, levels of Politcal Terror, imprisonment and violent acts has also declined. It has also improved in its relations with neighbouring countries. Chad is providing a leadership role in the region, supplying troops for African Union efforts in Mail and the Central African Republic. Chad continues to receive refugees fleeing its less peaceful neighbours including an influx fleeing Bangui in Central African Republic. As one of the top 5 risers in peace in 2013, and with dramatic increases in 2011, Chad has demonstrated that it can see improvements in peace over the space of a year.

However, greater advances are still required, especially for society and security. Perceived criminality in society, ease of access to firearms and the level of violent crime are all extremely high. 

Indicators that improved the most over the last year: 

 Organised Conflict Deaths (Internal)

 Relations with Neighbouring Countries

 Political Terror Scale

Indicators that deteriorated the most over the last year:

 Military Expenditure (% GDP)

 Political Instability           

The cost of violence in Chad

At 6.6% of GDP, equivalent to $125 per person, Chad is on the high side of violence containment spending compared to the rest of the world. However, in total spend Chad is ranked as an average spender for violence containment internationally.

The total economic impact of violence containment in Chad is US$1,455 million per year, which is around the international average.

How can Chad become more peaceful

Chad has the capacity to become more peaceful as it has seen improvement in 3 out of the 8 Pillars of Peace, a measurement of the attitudes, institutions and structures which underpin peaceful societies. Chad performs highest in the Good Relations With Neighbours Pillar, which measures the relationship between individuals, communities and states. Despite the improvement, it still performs below the regional average in this Pillar. 

Chad has seen the biggest gains in the Free Flow Of Information Pillar, which tracks how well-informed a society is and how easily citizens can gain access to information. The improvement in mobile penetration, at around 36%, is lower than others in the Sub-Sahara Africa region but understandable given the high rural population. Increasing mobile penetration will likely ensure information is spread more easily, which may heighten political engagement and boost the business environment.

Chad has regressed significantly in its Acceptance Of The Rights Of Others Pillar, which measures the formal institutions that ensure basic rights and freedoms as well as the informal social and cultural norms that relate to the behaviours of citizens. This indicates that improvements may be short lived. In addition, Chad faces a risk of economic stagnation as a result of its civil war in 2005-2010, as economic downturn can follow conflicts. Chad could recover previous performance in this Pillar through enforcing and expanding formal equality could lead to improvements in this Pillar. This could lead to higher levels of peacefulness too, as higher interpersonal safety and trust and inclusion of minorities have been associated with improvements in peacefulness. 

Read more

Read about how other countries are performing in peace here.

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